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Ice Age
The underlying of the Ice Age option is the average block time
$T_a$
calculated as:
$T_a = (T_n - T_0)/n$
where
$T_n$
is the current block timestamp,
$T_0$
is the timestamp of the block from which the option counts the average and
$n$
is the number of blocks since the counting started.
Each individual block can have any time between above 1 second as the PoW algorithm can generate blocks with times randomly distributed around the target block time of 15 seconds (but not shorter than 1 second). The fluctuation in the block times depend on one of the few factors:
• changes in hashrate can cause temporary block times variations
• miners leaving the network would cause the times to expand slightly
• miners joining the network would cause the times to shrink slightly
• Ice Age mechanism in Ethereum may cause the block times growth
When buying or selling an Ice Age option you are taking a view on one or all of the above. You may expect a massive shift in the hashrate or you may expect the Ice Age prevention mechanisms to fail.
Historical block time chart (see etherscan.io for the current values):